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Messages - AlexPali

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1
PipHunter / Re: PIPHUNTER Tests, .set file and optimizations
« on: September 09, 2009, 12:11:18 am »
Thank you very much for the great job Panagiotis;
I'm relocating to another place next week so will start testing the latest PipHunter after arranging internet connection.
Can't wait for that, very exciting already, lol.
Till than,
Alex

2
PipHunter / Re: PIPHUNTER Tests, .set file and optimizations
« on: July 22, 2009, 09:04:16 pm »
I shall add a trailing stop feature to the next version. PipHunter trades all signals but it waits for the next candle to reenter. Was the signal still valid at the next candle?

Welcome back Xux;

I didn’t have a chance to closely monitor the events to detect any valid reentry conditions, however in the longer past few times I noticed presence of such conditions.
 
Now, speaking about equipping PipHuner with Trailing Stop feature, I want to point out that the standard way TS handled by MT4 isn’t efficient method of securing floating gains. The problem is that once TS stage has been archived the system is moving the SL level tight to the current price what often causes termination of the open trade due to minor fluctuation of the price. Therefore, the solution would be if the SL level is constantly updated (shifted) while leaving adequate breathing room in situation when the fluctuating price continues to climb.
Unfortunately, I’m not technically skilled to figure out the best way to challenge it.
Hope the proposed by Xux99 solution will fix the above problem;


I shall add a breakeven feature. The stop loss already moves following the LL3/HH3 level. I thik the order should be closed not by stop loss but preferably by a possible top/bottom. iMAX cross or ZZ could be used.


Quote
Priority No 1:
As soon as an open trade achieves adequate level of floating profit, the robot should modify S/L values to brake-even level.

Priority No 2:
Assuming, that the trade positively distanced itself from the break-even S/L point, the robot keeps moving the S/L to match/follow the gaining altitude.

For the reason that the optimal S/L against current price stage stretch is uneven during different trading-times/market-conditions as well as it varies for individual currency pair, conceivably the device controlling this duty could be aided by indicators such as Bluto’s Chop_Whacker, Chopemeter or FerruFx's ProbabilityMeter etc or by other potential solutions.

3
PipHunter / Re: PIPHUNTER Tests, .set file and optimizations
« on: July 08, 2009, 08:32:16 pm »
Hello Folks;

I’m checking PipHunting forum few times a day hoping to hear for about performance of the latest PipHunter v.0.3. The latest version supposed to be equipped with break-even feature preventing the trades to fall into DD after it managed to enter into floating profit zone.
A week ago, I noticed that on one of my demos all trades were into floating gain of various levels. This situation lasted for a day or two but later most of the trades dropped down into DD zone indicating that the break-even mechanism didn’t prevent from such event.
Perhaps, we can try to make the break-even feature accessible in the settings with the options of choosing it as hidden or visible on/off modes.
What's more, I am not sure if on my demos the feature for securing significant floating gains that never achieved the TakeProfit levels and started loosing it’s currently gained value.
Both of the above issues could occur due to my satellite Interned connection that besides it’s slow speed is know to have big gaps between In-coming and Out-coming signals

In addition to the above happening, I tried an experiment employing independent TralingStop EA supplied by FreddyFX.
This PipHunter + TralingStop_EA tandem has been running for a week. So far I noticed the account didn’t lose any previously in-profit open trade. TralingStop_EA terminated most of the DD approaching open trades while the account still gained small profit however.
Thus far, it sounds like it is safer to manage open trades in such a manner versus allowing them to oscillate deep into the allowed 100 – 175 pip DD zone.
So far PipHunter never reopened the trade after the previous ones were terminated but the price reverses back to the previously predicted direction. This could be simply because the condition were not any longer satisfactory for reopening the same trade, or the Robot is not trained to do so.
I hope we find a solution the above obstacles.

Regards,
Alex

4
PipHunter / Re: Trading formula follow-up
« on: June 27, 2009, 08:47:35 pm »
Hello partners;

The last two weeks were not lucky for PipHunter Robot.
I’ve been running the EA on two; FXDD and FXCM-UK demos.
The two brokers have 2 hours server time differences so the entries are not matching due to the differences in daily candles values, an essential detail for PipHunter to determine entry levels.

I noticed that in average 70+% with both demos the entries went into floating profit but never reached the 1st or the 2nd Take-Profit levels before going into DD.
That shows the weakness side of the way the original PM strategy is handling open trades.
Perhaps the Break-Even feature that Panagiotis is going to add will stop the losing behavior of the system. However, there must be found another solution how to capture pips of the in-floating-profitable trade after it reverses the direction to the wrong way.
Attached are statements of the two FXDD and FXCM-UK demos.

With best wishes,
Alex

5
PipHunter / Re: PipHunter rules
« on: June 20, 2009, 02:18:05 am »
Attached please find updated version of the Manual FX v.3.1 Daily based Trading Strategy.
The newly edited manual: FX-D1-system_v.3.1_updated-2009-6-19.PDF file is located at the first posting of this thread.
In the updated file two pages No.11 & 12 has been added containing IP (Instant Pips) strategy.
This should be the complete version of the Manual.  

6
PipHunter / PipHunter Improvement suggestions
« on: June 14, 2009, 07:02:04 pm »
I'm running Pip-Hunter on two FXDD and FXCM-UK accounts, with 7 pairs, 0.2 lot size
The FXCM-UK account was started with $10K portfolio and increased to $18K with manual trading Pip-Hunter’s way. Thus the final output does not reflecting performance of Pip-Hunter EA but the robot traded more actively here than with the FXDD counterpart.

The two brokers are using 2 hours different server times. The above situation doesn’t affect systems trading systems based lower, up to H1 TF because the candles are starting and ending exactly at the same physical time despite the server’s time differences.
Yet it matters in the case of H4 and higher (D1 in case of Pip-Hunter) time frame because the starting/ending time is overlapping and each hour of difference could deliver a big gap of the upper/lower value readings of the D1 candle for each broker. As a result, Pip-Hunter is spotting entry set-ups shifted hours or even days.

For example, I started FXDD and FXCM-UK platforms on Sunday, June 7th, 2009; 21:00 GMT running on the same settings or seven pairs.
Due to the two hours differences of the starting/ending time of the daily candles, Pip-Hunter spotted entry set-ups and engaged trades on the first trading day on the FXCM-UK platform, while on the FXDD platform trades were executed the next day. As well, the executed trades on the two platforms were not matching the same currency pairs and of course delivered different results. The FXCM-UK secured almost $2’000 of profit while FXDD executed just one TP1 (50% of the 0.2 size trade) securing $177 only. As we see, the differences in candle readings happened to be favorable for FXCM this time. However, I don’t think that this is any solid clue that FXCM is any better than FXDD, simply because the better output occur due to favorable market trend for the 2 hour postponed D1 TF.

During previous and the last trading week in particular, I noticed that at least for 3 days in a row, both accounts were gaining significant floating profit ranging from $300 up to $1’200 before going into various $-300, $-600, $-1’500 and above $-2’300 DDs.
It is common with this strategy the situation when the trade is approaching the TP1 (1st take profit) level and reverses back to the starting (or even below) level and few hours (or the next day) it again goes the proper way. Due to the above happenings, the original trading strategy is using large 100 – 175 pips S/L levels to stay in trade hoping that for positive reversal.
I believe that we could lower the risk by preventing the trades from going into such a deep DD while collecting smaller gains during such situations. In most cases, the negatively pair recovers and continue following the direction previously forecasted by the strategy. As soon as that occurs and the previously determined entry set-up conditions are still valid, the robot can reopen the trade and maintain it accordingly. We would not only lower our lose risks but harvesting bonus pips when enhancing Pip-Hunter with such capability.

Here is my modification vision:

Priority No 1:
As soon as an open trade achieves adequate level of floating profit, the robot should modify S/L values to brake-even level.

Priority No 2:
Assuming, that the trade positively distanced itself from the break-even S/L point, the robot keeps moving the S/L to match/follow the gaining altitude.

Since the pair prices are fluctuating with variable ranges due to different market volume activity at particular times, determining the optimal space between S/L level and the current price would be very important. Properly managing the above task will prevent from going into deep DD as well as from premature (unnecessary) termination of the trade that happen to be on a winning path.

For the reason that the optimal S/L against current price stage stretch is uneven during different trading-times/market-conditions as well as it varies for individual currency pair, conceivably the device controlling this duty could be aided by indicators such as Bluto’s Chop_Whacker, Chopemeter or FerruFx's ProbabilityMeter etc or by other potential solutions. After such a controller is synchronized with supportive indicators, the time/pair sensitive variables will be optimized with series of back and forward testing.

I understand that the above request is not an easy task because it brings another level of complexity to the code, however I believe it is as important as the main strategy that the robot is based on.
I hope this is achievable and worth to try.

7
PipHunter / Re: PIPHUNTER Tests, .set file and optimizations
« on: June 14, 2009, 06:49:31 pm »
First trading week results delivered by Pip-Hunter v0.1

FXDD demo account; $5’000 starting portfolio, Pip-Hunter v.0.1; lot size: 0.2
Pairs tested: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, USD/JPY
Account No: 6566466
Read-only password: Carpet2

Statement as of; Friday, June 12, 2009; 21:00 GMT

Pair:   Balance - pips    Equity – pips
----------------------------------------------------
EUR/USD       0            -297
GBP/USD      0               51
AUD/USD      0                2
NZD/USD   177             383
USD/CHF      0            -123
USD/CAD      0            -232
USD/JPY      0                0
----------------------------------------------------
Total:        177           -216

8
Here is another one; Noddy manual trading strategy

http://fxaw.activeboard.com/forum.spark?forumID=117707&p=3&topicID=28558638
Hepsibah wrote:

"OK, here goes.  I am not pretending there is anything ground-breaking in this strategy, it is just one that I have been using recently that has made money - and that is rather rare for me.  If someone feels motivated to code it, that would be great as it could easily be backtested and then we could see if it has just been luck that has made it successful recently.

Noddy
Noddy was the name of a children's book in the UK when I was young (it's apparently considered to be non-politically correct these days but didn't seem to do us any harm!).  Anyway, this strategy is so simple that I have named it after the children's book.

Rationale
The strategy is based around the fact that price will tend to move towards the Pivot value except in times of high volatility/strong trending markets.

Timing
You can choose any time that is convenient to you to trade this strategy.  The trade, SL and TP are all entered at the same time and there is no need to watch the screen afterwards.  I tend to use it most days before the London open (around 6 or 7am London time) and sometimes in the afternoon before the US open.

Setup
Use Camarilla historical pivot lines with only the Pivot, H4 and L4 lines visible (indicator and template at the bottom of the post).  I use it on EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY.   I do not think that it is suited to more volatile crosses like GBPJPY.

When you are ready to make a trade, set the GMT shift value to correspond to the closest hour to the current time so that new pivot lines will be drawn.  For example, if I am up around 6am London time, I will set the GMT value to 7 (I use Alpari UK which is GMT + 1).

Trade Conditions
Check the value of the current period's Pivot line (P) with the value of the previous period's H4 and L4 lines.  If prev H4 > P > prev. L4 then you have a potential trade setup.  If P > prev H4 or if P < prev L4 there is no trade (this usually signifies high volatility/strong trending situations).

If you have a valid trade setup, check the current price in relation to P.  If current price is less than P, enter long, set TP to the value of P and SL to the value of the current period's L4.  If current price is greater than P, enter short, set TP to the value of P and SL to the current period's H4.

I usually also use two further checks.  Firstly, I make sure that the current price is at least 15 pips away from P and secondly, I check that the SL is not more than 60 pips away.  I have to admit that I do not have any scientific reasons for these numbers and it is something that could usefully be checked with backtesting.

Files
Indicator and template attached below.
Noddy.mq4 (8.1 kb)
noddy.tpl (2.7 kb)
..................... "


9
Could the 4H Box Breakout be valuable enhancement to Pip-Hunter robot?

The below information was found at FXAW forum. The feedback so far is incredibly good. Supposedly it should be an easy system to follow and to automate respectively. Possibly this method is worth to be automated as a stand-alone robot with the option to integrate it into Pip-Hunter system as another long-term strategy.  

Here are some inspiring quotes:

4H Box Breakout
http://fxaw.activeboard.com/forum.spark?forumID=117707&p=35

Joewudly wrote:
“Last week a link was posted that deals with the 4H Box Breakout system.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=168161

I have manually back tested the G/J data back to about a year and a half and the results are very good.  Its a long term weekly method that takes up to 2 trades a week and very easy to setup.  I would like to work on creating an EA for this but want to know if anyone else has done any testing or has data before I do.”


Nubchai wrote:
“The 4H Breakout System looks very promising. One challenge is that Ace sometimes changes the details of the system.   But JDSim's contribution is to provide a method to determine the trend before taking the trade.  He uses nonlagMA and a grid system.  I'm currently looking at JD's system as a separate 4 Hours trading method.  In trading it on demo it's had some nice results.  JD won't take a trade if the nonlagMA is red and it's crossing the blue portion of the grid or vice versa.  If you look at some charts that does give up a lot of pips.  But he estimates his success rate at 60 to 70% by following the trend and re entering after pullbacks.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=168161&page=28
Sandy”


Joewudly wrote:
“I have tried the methods of exiting you mentioned and totally agree with you. My conclusion is 1 position, exiting at the TP2 is the best way to go. Though from the data I have gathered it seems that 2 positions might be better if you exit as follows. The 1st with an exit at TP2. When TP2 is hit move position 2 to break even. Close it TP4 or on Friday.

I am ONLY testing with FXDD since the entry is built around the 1st bar created with this broker. I will not test other broker data because it will be way to tome consuming to re-measure all of this data for 20 other brokers. We can always use FXDD to take our signals from and execute them on another broker anyway.

But to keep the system simple TP2 is the way to go. Using G/J data from 6/1/08 to 6/2/09 I calculated 5082 pips gain not counting spread just using TP2 and a lot size of .1.

I also tested using the same TP2 method but increased/decrease the lot size by .1 for every 1000 pips of profit/loss and got a total of 15422 pips gain not counting spread.

I also tested using the same TP2 method but increased/decrease the lot size by .1 for every win/loss after first reaching +1000 pips of profit and got a total of 24369 pips gain not counting spread.

I also tested using the same TP2 method but increased the lot size by .1 every 2 trades after first reaching +1000 pips of profit and got a total of 47180 pips gain not counting spread.

I also tested using the same TP2 method but increased the lot size by .1 every 1 trades after first reaching +1000 pips of profit and got a total of 82179 pips gain not counting spread. Though this method made a large profit, the lot sizes increased quickly and were a bit to large in 2 instances.

I also tested using the same TP2 method but increased the lot size by .1 every 3 trades after first reaching +1000 pips of profit and got a total of 31937 pips gain not counting spread.

This testing only covers 1 year and resulted in 79 trades. I will need to do this for a total of 3 years to get a better picture. Its a bit time consuming though. =) I also want to try with the 2 position idea i had earlier and see what i get. Some week G/J runs on for hundreds of pips and it happens pretty often. My hope is those larger gains will of set the more frequent losses and break evens.

Well, more to come as I keep testing.”


10
PipHunter / Re: Trading formula follow-up
« on: June 10, 2009, 03:01:27 am »
Hello friends & Forex brothers;

Firs of all I would like to thank very much to Panagiotis (xux99) for delivering the following v.0.1 of Pip-Hunter robot. This is the very fist release incorporating all three main tactics of the strategy. (Still there is aggressive sub-D1-1 strategy to be added down the road.)

So far I noticed the following:
Since Pip-Hunter is using D1 Time Frame for analyzing the market movements, the result on spotting out a set-up is vary to brokers using different server times.
For example, FXDD has server time is same as Ignacio’s used FX Solutions but FXDD-UK and Alpari-UK are behind one and two hours. Therefore, the readings of D1 candles differ a lot among the three brokers and as a result, the set-ups determined by Pip-Hunter are different for hours ore even jumps to the following day if not disappears for a while.
Since we don’t know which starting/ending D1 Time-Frame is the most optimal for Pip-Hunter’s strategy, the only choice is to try all of the spectrum used by the most respected brokers and compare the final results.
In my first tasting days with two brokers: FXCM-UK and FXDD I noticed that the robot is placing the same trade twice in the case of FXDD-EUR/USD; (screenshot attached).
In the case of FXCM-UK the robot positioned D1-1 and D1-2 trades while the other one was still running.
I don’t know if such situation is permissible in theory and allowed in practice but this is something to be concern of.
I believe a coder and the only native Anglophone member among our team; Tim would be the best specialist to verify this condition against the available written strategy manual. (Well, Steve “forex5x” who is one of my best FX fiends is Anglophone too but he is sort of passive member so far).
Once again, many thanks for Panagiotis for his extraordinary job and for Tim for his further support in improving/tuning-up this robot.

With best Regards,
Alex

Quote:
AlexPali says:
It looks like all 7 USD involved pairs are heading for PM2 set-ups. But it might change over the night.

Ignacio says:
Remember you don't trade any PM1 or PM2 until PM3 has run its course.

"If a PM 1 or 2 setup occurs, but a Pip Rev trade is already in progress, then stand aside until the Pip Rev Trade has run its course."

11
PipHunter / Re: Pip_Hunter rules
« on: June 04, 2009, 07:35:31 pm »
Attached please find updated version of the Manual FX Daily based Trading Strategy.
The newly edited manual: FX-D1-system_Updated-2009-06-04.pdf file is located at the first posting of this thread.
In the updated file page No.6 has been added containing D1-1 Aggressive sub-strategy and a mistake was corrected at page No 9 to be as the following:
E.- THE LOWEST %K WITHIN 2 BARS OF POINT 3 > LOWEST %K WITHIN 2 BARS OF POINT 1.

(“……….. Actually PM1 aggressive is independent from regular PM1
PM1 aggressive sets-up when you have had a profitable PM1 or PM2 that just closed, and no subsequent PM2 setup has appears. …………….”
)


12
PipHunter / Re: Pip_Hunter rules
« on: May 30, 2009, 04:06:20 am »
Screenshots of multiple D1-1 (PM1), D1-2 (PM2) and D1-3 (PR) set-up conditions.
Note: D1-3 condition is very rare however once it occurs it delivers a good chance of very large price movement in the desired direction.

13
PipHunter / Re: Trading formula follow-up
« on: May 30, 2009, 03:34:11 am »
It looks like the existing Pip-Hunter is making very significant mistake while detecting D1-1 Long set-up conditions.
On Thursday, right after midnight GMT the robot detected D1-1 (PM1) Long set-up on EUR.USD as well as D1-2 (PM2) Long one within relatively short distance from each other;
D1-1 Long at: 1.3991 & D1-2 Long at: Long at 1.4036
The D1-2 Long happened to be a valid detection by the way. It kicked in and at the FX closing time on Friday there is 101 floating profit.

While consulting that situation with Ignacio, he was surprised that I’m speculating D1-1 condition since there was no sign of changing direction of Moving Average (9) and Moving Average (18) indicators; a must condition for D1-1 set-up in this case.

Thus, the portion of the code recognizing the above conditions probably should be revised.

14
PipHunter / Other Systems, Tools, Indicators, etc.
« on: May 29, 2009, 06:57:45 am »
Other Enhancements, Potential Trading Systems to be automated, etc.

15
PipHunter / General Discussions / Ideas, Messages
« on: May 29, 2009, 06:18:53 am »
Folks;
Please use this thread for messages, discussions etc, that are not suited to any specific topic.
Thank you.

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